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Markets · Options · Signal
May 22, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:10 ET
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S&P 500
746.31
+0.48%
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Nasdaq
717.94
+0.48%
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Dow
506.56
+0.69%
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Russell 2k
284.80
+0.82%
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VIX
16.82
+0.36%
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20Y Bond
84.31
+0.11%
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Gold
414.10
-0.69%
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Silver
68.57
-1.27%
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Oil
143.08
+0.38%
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USD
27.80
+0.27%
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CNN Fear & Greed
61
Greed
wk -2 · mo -7
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 731.62 |
Res: 749.53 |
RSI: 69.3 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 694.92 |
Res: 722.03 |
RSI: 71.6 |
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Econ Calendar |
1 high-impact · Fri May 22 – Fri May 22 · as of 10:10 ET |
| Fri May 22 |
| 02:00 |
DE |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.2% |
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| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.08% |
+4bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.57% |
+0bps |
| Spread |
+49bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
99.30 |
+0.11% |
| VIX/3M |
0.84 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
7.00% |
-0.02% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
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z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2678
$110.89 · $414.02
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z -1.50 · Watch · ρ 85%
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| BTC |
$76,999 |
-0.7% |
| ETH |
$2,122 |
-0.5% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0276 |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
10:13 ET |
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Health Care
+1.30%
XLV
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Technology
+0.97%
XLK
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Industrials
+0.58%
XLI
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Financials
+0.53%
XLF
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Cons. Discr.
+0.38%
XLY
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Utilities
+0.32%
XLU
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Materials
+0.30%
XLB
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Energy
+0.21%
XLE
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Real Estate
+0.13%
XLRE
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Cons. Staples
+0.08%
XLP
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Communication
-0.22%
XLC
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In today's bull market, we're seeing a rotation into defensive Health Care and Technology, but Industrials' strength suggests cyclical sectors still have legs.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 3 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 3 days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.48% from the previous close, while the Dow and Russell 2k saw slightly larger gains. Worth watching is the divergence between the Dow's record high and Fed's Waller's comments on unanchoring inflation expectations, while gilt yields dropped sharply on the week.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:12 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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NVDA
mixed
44
“No More PDT Restriction”
WSB 209 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
bullish
41
“Apparently Fidelity is still giving these out”
WSB 1736 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
mixed
31
“I am getting worried”
WSB 320 pts · 5/5 subs
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SPY
mixed
27
“PLEASE take your profits.”
WSB 1372 pts · 5/5 subs
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RKLB
mixed
18
“I am getting worried”
WSB 320 pts · 4/5 subs
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ASIA
mixed
16
“The top is almost in DD: my harem of women”
WSB 2583 pts · 3/5 subs
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TSLA
mixed
13
“100% winrate today scalping SPY and TSLA, made $14k and it’s my birthday too 😝”
WSB 588 pts · 4/5 subs
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POOL
bullish
11
“Samsung chip workers will get an average $340,000 bonus as AI profits soar”
STK 1105 pts
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Insider Wire |
5085 Form 4s filed · 10:10 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-17 to 2026-05-22
CEOs and executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with a cluster of large sells in tech and software names, including NET, ALAB, and CRWD.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
NET |
Prince Matthew CEO & Board Co-Chair |
$32.6M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Mohan Jitendra Chief Executive Officer |
$21.5M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Gajendra Sanjay President and COO |
$21.5M |
| SELL |
TDG |
Howley W Nicholas Insider |
$12.0M |
| SELL |
FRPT |
Cyr William B. Chief Executive Officer |
$4.6M |
| SELL |
CRWD |
Kurtz George PRESIDENT AND CEO |
$3.0M |
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Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:13 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.3% |
6.2d |
-2.4% |
HIGH
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| BYND |
27.6% |
1.4d |
-11.1% |
ELEVATED
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| SMCI |
17.9% |
2.6d |
-3.1% |
ELEVATED
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| AMC |
17.5% |
3.1d |
+19.5% |
ELEVATED
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| GME |
14.5% |
8.6d |
-5.5% |
ELEVATED
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| RIVN |
14.1% |
6.0d |
-0.4% |
MODERATE
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| CVNA |
13.1% |
4.9d |
-10.5% |
MODERATE
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| SOFI |
12.7% |
2.6d |
-2.6% |
LOW
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8110 scanned · 16 SEC-confirmed· 0 red · 3 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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| TSHA |
0.25 |
0.85 |
0.30 |
67% |
COOLGRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
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| SIRI |
0.24 |
0.55 |
0.30 |
50% |
GRINDADDM&A |
YELLOW
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:10 ET |
| BBG |
Mexico Mid-May Inflation Slowed After Banxico Ended Easing Cycle
Mexico's inflation slowdown in mid-May may prompt Banxico to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially leading to a stronger peso and lower interest rates. Monitor upcoming inflation data to confirm this trend. A sudden increase in inflation expectations could, however, lead to a hawkish shift.
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1h ago |
| FT |
Gilt relief rally sends yields to biggest weekly drop since 2024
The gilt relief rally, with yields experiencing their largest weekly drop since 2024, implies a decrease in UK interest rates or a dovish shift in the Bank of England's stance. This could lead to a weakening British pound and improved asset performance. Watch for upcoming economic data and BoE communications to confirm this trend.
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4h ago |
| MW |
A ‘toxic cocktail’ is now threatening stocks, and the S&P 500 could drop 15%, according to this hedge fund
A hedge fund warns of a 'toxic cocktail' threatening stocks, with the potential for the S&P 500 to drop 15%. This could be driven by a market downturn, risk-off sentiment, and safe-haven buying. Keep an eye on market technicals and investor sentiment to gauge the likelihood of a sell-off.
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2h ago |
| FJ |
Fed's Waller: I can’t dismiss the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations.
Fed's Waller expresses concerns about unanchoring inflation expectations, which could lead to higher inflation and a shift towards inflation-protected assets. Monitor upcoming inflation data and Fed communications to assess the risk of a hawkish policy shift. A significant increase in inflation expectations could have immediate effects on rates and asset valuations.
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8m ago |
| FT |
JPMorgan looks to offload exposure to $4bn in private equity-linked loans
JPMorgan's plan to offload exposure to $4 billion in private equity-linked loans may raise concerns about credit market stress. Monitor market reactions and JPMorgan's actions to gauge the potential impact on credit spreads and financial stability. A rapid loss of confidence in financial institutions could be a systemic constraint.
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10h ago |
| BBG |
AI-Fueled Rally Puts S&P 500 on Track for Eighth Weekly Gain
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1h ago |
| BBG |
Gold Edges Down as Traders Weigh Prospects of US-Iran Peace Deal
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15h ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:10 ET |
| FJ |
Fed Holds Rates Steady
Fed's Waller says rates to stay steady near term
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6m ago |
| FJ |
Iran Deal Uncertain
US Secretary of State Rubio says no Iran deal yet
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27m ago |
| FJ |
Oil Shock Risks
WH Sr. Adviser Hassett warns of oil shock to inflation
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1h ago |
| FJ |
ECB Commits to Price Stability
ECB's Lagarde vows to maintain price stability at 2%
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4h ago |
| FJ |
Crude and Inflation Fears
University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation rises to 3.9%
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8m ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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QBTS
$29.21
+13.5%
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Bullish
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| Composite 56 |
1M +33.3% |
3M +42.6% |
1Y +67.6% |
FLAT |
QBTS surged after the US Department of Commerce announced over $2.0 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act, with D-Wave securing a $100 million letter of intent. The stock has risen 33.3% in the past month and 67.6% in the past year, with an analyst target of $36. However, the rally may be at risk if the company's fundamentals fail to justify the hype.
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RGTI
$25.75
+16.8%
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Bullish
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| Composite 51 |
1M +30.7% |
3M +37.6% |
1Y +101.1% |
FLAT |
Quantum stocks, including Rigetti (RGTI), jumped after the Trump administration announced over $2 billion in federal incentives for quantum computing research and development projects. RGTI, along with D-Wave and Infleqtion, saw gains ahead of the opening bell. The market may be overestimating the near-term impact of these grants, and a potential delay in project timelines could disappoint investors.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
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2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
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2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
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2026-05-01 |
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 22 |
BRKHU
BurTech Acquisition Corp II
|
— |
$115M |
| May 22 |
PECEU
Peace Acquisition Corp.
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— |
$69M |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
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— |
$34M |
| May 27 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
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— |
$21M |
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Congressional Trades |
1 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Tim Moore |
T |
Purchase |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
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Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
QTEX
+162.6%
$0.80
MEHA
+50.7%
$0.12
EMISR
+47.6%
$0.15
GOVX
+40.0%
$3.85
RYOJ
+33.8%
$2.69
Top Losers
FUTG
-57.9%
$2.97
ADTX
-45.0%
$0.67
NGEN
-43.6%
$2.08
LIMN
-38.1%
$0.15
RGTZ
-33.6%
$3.18
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Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:13 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
624,680 |
335,992 |
288,688 |
0.86
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$750C 64,791 vol |
| SPY: Call-heavy flow with $750C hot, suggests bullish positioning in a strong market. |
| QQQ |
436,330 |
215,953 |
220,377 |
1.02
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$720C 32,133 vol |
| QQQ: Neutral P/C ratio, mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
| TSLA |
279,653 |
216,197 |
63,456 |
0.29
|
$430C 39,303 vol |
| TSLA: Extremely low P/C ratio of 0.29, aggressive call buying, bullish bet. |
| NVDA |
242,983 |
171,488 |
71,495 |
0.42
|
$220C 31,593 vol |
| NVDA: Call-heavy flow with low P/C ratio of 0.42, indicates bullish institutional positioning. |
| AMD |
100,759 |
72,542 |
28,217 |
0.39
|
$480C 14,504 vol |
| AMD: Call-heavy flow with low P/C ratio of 0.39, suggests bullish bet, eyeing $480 strike. |
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INTC
CC
Best Quality
High · max 2%
|
$607B
· Earnings Apr 23
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| $130C |
27 DTE |
+79.0% ann. |
+8.6% OTM |
Δ 0.08 |
POP 92% |
|
| Intel's stock is experiencing significant insider activity, with a 155.4x minute spike and an insider score of 97, according to scanner data. |
|
AXTI
CC
Craziest Return
Low · max 1%
|
$8B
· Earnings Apr 30
|
| $126C |
21 DTE |
+211.9% ann. |
+5.6% OTM |
Δ 0.16 |
POP 84% |
|
| AXTI stock is experiencing significant movement, with a 14% decline today, amid discussions of AI demand, a recent capital raise, and market crash concerns. |
|
ARM
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$323B
· Earnings May 06
|
| $330C |
41 DTE |
+62.1% ann. |
+13.5% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
|
| ARM stock surged to a new all-time high after a bullish analyst call and a new $300 price target from an analyst. |
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Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $746 · QQQ $718 · VIX 16.8 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 16.8 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$735P |
55d |
1 |
$12.39 |
$1,239 |
8.2% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$755P |
55d |
1 |
$20.38 |
$2,038 |
13.5% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$731P |
55d |
2 |
$11.27 |
$2,254 |
15.0% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $755P 55d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$709 |
109% |
$98,330 |
| Correction -10% |
$672 |
98% |
$97,811 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$634 |
95% |
$97,291 |
| Crash -20% |
$597 |
93% |
$96,772 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$710P |
55d |
1 |
$18.98 |
$1,898 |
12.6% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$730P |
55d |
1 |
$28.02 |
$2,802 |
18.6% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$703P |
55d |
2 |
$16.55 |
$3,310 |
22.0% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $730P 55d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$682 |
113% |
$97,732 |
| Correction -10% |
$646 |
99% |
$97,073 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$610 |
94% |
$96,413 |
| Crash -20% |
$574 |
92% |
$95,753 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:13 ET
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May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 22 (MTD) · Hit rate: 30/51 · Avg return: +2.0% · YTD: +25.1%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+67.8% |
Ann. |
86.1% |
Sharpe |
3.79 |
Max DD |
-5.2% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+66.2% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$167,798 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
7,754% |
Ann. |
24.5% |
Sharpe |
1.41 |
Max DD |
-40.1% |
| Win% |
67% |
Alpha |
+14.1% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$7,854,346 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
-1.6% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+9.4% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
-0.1% |
| L |
5.5% |
-1.9% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
-0.2% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
-9.3% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
+4.4% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
-2.3% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+24.9% |
| TRP |
3.3% |
+6.8% |
| PH |
2.9% |
-1.7% |
| WTS |
2.9% |
+2.9% |
| AMG |
2.9% |
+3.9% |
| BIIB |
2.9% |
+2.9% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-8.4% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+3.1% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+39.0% |
| FMBH |
1.8% |
+0.5% |
| GVA |
1.8% |
-8.3% |
| HSIC |
1.7% |
+0.9% |
| PCAR |
1.5% |
-5.7% |
| GKOS |
1.4% |
-2.7% |
| CTRE |
1.3% |
+4.5% |
| HLT |
1.3% |
+0.7% |
| NMIH |
1.2% |
+1.0% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| RY |
1.2% |
+5.6% |
| PRM |
1.2% |
+2.1% |
| IHG |
1.1% |
+8.0% |
| SBUX |
1.1% |
-2.6% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-8.2% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+3.5% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-15.6% |
| CMPR |
1.1% |
+6.0% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+19.2% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+8.6% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-19.0% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
-8.5% |
| PSA |
0.8% |
+1.6% |
| EPD |
0.6% |
+3.9% |
| AHR |
0.5% |
-1.2% |
| MO |
0.4% |
-1.2% |
| MDLZ |
0.4% |
+0.9% |
| PEP |
0.2% |
-5.2% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+9.2% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+1.0% |
| META |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+10.3% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+10.2% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+8.2% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+2.1% |
|
|
|
Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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