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Markets · Options · Signal
May 25, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:08 ET
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S&P 500
745.64
+0.39%
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Nasdaq
717.54
+0.42%
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Dow
506.12
+0.60%
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Russell 2k
285.12
+0.93%
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VIX
16.63
-0.42%
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20Y Bond
84.68
+0.55%
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Gold
413.82
-0.76%
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Silver
68.36
-1.57%
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Oil
140.92
-1.14%
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USD
27.77
+0.14%
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CNN Fear & Greed
59
Greed
wk -4 · mo -9
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| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 731.58 |
Res: 749.53 |
RSI: 68.9 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 694.91 |
Res: 722.12 |
RSI: 71.5 |
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Econ Calendar |
2 high-impact · Tue May 26 – Wed May 27 · as of 10:08 ET |
| Tue May 26 |
| 10:00 |
US |
CB Consumer Confidence (May) — est. 91.9, prev. 92.8 |
| Wed May 27 |
| 13:00 |
EU |
ECB Press Conference |
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Sector Rotation · Today |
10:11 ET |
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Health Care
+1.17%
XLV
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Technology
+1.00%
XLK
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Utilities
+0.78%
XLU
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Industrials
+0.73%
XLI
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Energy
+0.61%
XLE
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Materials
+0.54%
XLB
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Financials
+0.41%
XLF
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Cons. Discr.
+0.40%
XLY
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Cons. Staples
+0.17%
XLP
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Real Estate
+0.13%
XLRE
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Communication
-0.55%
XLC
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In today's Bull regime, we're seeing a defensive tilt with Health Care, Technology, and Utilities leading, while cyclicals like Communication Services lag.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 4 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 4 days, with the S&P 500 up 0.39% and Russell 2k outperforming with a 0.93% move. Worth watching is the divergence between risk appetite, as indicated by the improved US sentiment and major indices' gains, and the cautious tone from BlackRock's Saigal, who sees sufficient factors to justify a Fed cut.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:10 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
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META
mixed
67
“Why the app you’re using should be a stock you own ($RDDT)”
WSB 650 pts · 5/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
21
“The Capex Unwind Thesis 2027 - 2028”
WSB 344 pts · 5/5 subs
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MSFT
mixed
17
“Why the app you’re using should be a stock you own ($RDDT)”
WSB 650 pts · 5/5 subs
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BRO
mixed
15
“Elon Musk's estimated wealth soared by $45 billion to a record $722 billion on T…”
WSB 3102 pts · 5/5 subs
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AMD
mixed
12
“Why the app you’re using should be a stock you own ($RDDT)”
WSB 650 pts · 5/5 subs
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MU
mixed
11
“The Capex Unwind Thesis 2027 - 2028”
WSB 344 pts · 5/5 subs
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ODD
bullish
11
“Reddit stock drops 6% after Meta announces a Facebook Groups app”
STK 1169 pts · 3/5 subs
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TIP
bullish
10
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Insider Wire |
3464 Form 4s filed · 10:08 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-20 to 2026-05-25
Executives dump shares ahead of earnings in the cybersecurity sector, with CEOs and top brass unloading millions in CRWV, NET, ALAB, and CRWD.
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Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
CRWV |
Venturo Brian M Chief Strategy Officer |
$38.0M |
| SELL |
NET |
Prince Matthew CEO & Board Co-Chair |
$32.6M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Mohan Jitendra Chief Executive Officer |
$21.5M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Gajendra Sanjay President and COO |
$21.5M |
| SELL |
ALAB |
Mazzara Philip General Counsel and Secretary |
$3.3M |
| SELL |
CRWD |
Kurtz George PRESIDENT AND CEO |
$3.0M |
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8110 scanned · 76 SEC-confirmed· 4 red · 50 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SONO |
0.46 |
0.85 |
0.65 |
42% |
PREGRINDCOVERELEVLADDERATM* |
RED
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| FTK |
0.59 |
0.65 |
0.46 |
54% |
GRINDADDELEV |
RED
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| AMCX |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
47% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| FBYD |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.21 |
88% |
BLOWGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
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| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
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| GETY |
0.22 |
0.85 |
0.47 |
18% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
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| CBRL |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
36% |
GRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
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| HTLD |
0.11 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
36% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
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| RUM |
0.30 |
0.65 |
0.42 |
90% |
IGNGRINDADDELEVATM |
YELLOW
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| FORR |
0.27 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
56% |
GRINDCOVERELEVILLIQ |
YELLOW
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+ 44 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:08 ET |
| FJ |
US Sentiment: Risk Appetite Improved On Diplomacy Hopes - FJElite
Improved sentiment on diplomacy hopes between the US and Iran is supporting risk appetite, which could lead to a continued rally in risk assets. As optimism grows, investors might rotate into equities and other risk assets, potentially leading to a stronger equity market and tighter credit spreads. Nevertheless, a sudden deterioration in US-Iran relations could quickly reverse this sentiment.
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2h ago |
| FJ |
Iran Talks Bog Down Over Nuclear Program, Sanctions Relief - WSJ
The slowdown in Iran talks due to disagreements over the nuclear program and sanctions relief could lead to renewed tensions and higher oil prices. If the talks fail to make progress, we might see a risk-off reaction, with investors buying safe-havens and selling risk assets. The market will be closely watching for official statements from Iran and the US, as well as movements in oil prices.
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9m ago |
| BBG |
BlackRock’s Saigal Sees ‘Sufficient Factors’ to Justify Fed Cut
BlackRock's Saigal sees sufficient factors to justify a Fed rate cut, which could lead to a weaker USD and higher asset prices. If the Fed does cut rates, we could see a boost to equities and other assets sensitive to interest rates. However, strong economic data or a clear statement from the Fed pushing back against market expectations could weaken the case for a rate cut.
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5h ago |
| FT |
It’s not just SpaceX: Big Tech is dominating bond markets too
Big Tech's growing dominance in bond markets could affect market liquidity and dynamics, potentially leading to changes in tech stock valuations and bond market liquidity. While this could lead to a rotation into tech stocks or bonds, increased regulatory scrutiny or market events highlighting liquidity risks could have a negative impact. The market will be monitoring tech stock performance and bond market liquidity indicators closely.
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10h ago |
| BBG |
SoftBank Taps Retail Market Again With $1.6 Billion Yen Bond
SoftBank's decision to tap the retail market with a $1.6 billion yen bond may indicate a need for liquidity, potentially raising concerns about its financial health. If investors perceive this as a sign of financial distress, SoftBank's shares could come under pressure. However, if the bond issuance is successful and seen as a strategic move, it could boost investor confidence in the company.
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8h ago |
| FJ |
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Bagher and Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Doha earlier today for talks on ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict - Source briefed on the visit told Fox News.
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2h ago |
| FJ |
Iranian Top Negotiator Qalibaf and foreign minister Aragchi are in Doha to meet Qatar’s pm over a potential US-Iran deal to end conflict — Official briefed on the visit to Sources
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2h ago |
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Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:08 ET |
| FJ |
Iran Nuclear Talks Stalled
Stalled Iran nuclear talks may lead to increased geopolitical risk
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2h ago |
| FJ |
Russia Refinery Halted
Drone attack may impact Russian oil production and global crude supply
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7m ago |
| FJ |
Japan Unveils Energy Plans
Japan's new energy plans may impact global LNG and oil demand
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5h ago |
| FJ |
Iran-Qatar Talks Continue
Iran-Qatar talks may lead to easing of US-Iran tensions and impact oil markets
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2h ago |
| FJ |
Canada Wholesale Trade Rises
Canada's wholesale trade rise may signal economic growth and impact BoC policy
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1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
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NCLH
$16.30
-1.0%
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Bullish
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| Composite -14 |
1M -11.9% |
3M -32.0% |
1Y -6.5% |
DOWN |
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) jumped 5.0% after announcing a cooperation agreement with activist investor Elliott Management, outlining $125 million in SG&A run-rate savings, and reporting Q1 results that exceeded earnings expectations. The stock has dropped 9% this month amid rising fuel prices and a viral outbreak. The market may be mispricing the impact of these developments on NCLH's profitability.
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PYPL
$44.23
-0.2%
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Bearish
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| Composite -31 |
1M -12.4% |
3M -5.9% |
1Y -38.1% |
DOWN |
PayPal's (PYPL) stock has declined significantly, with a 1Y return of -38.1%, and its composite score is -31/100, indicating a bearish trend. American Express (AXP) is seen as having an edge over PYPL in digital payments due to its resilient premium spending and strong earnings growth. The market may be mispricing PYPL's prospects, but its growth days may be in the rearview mirror, per Motley Fool and Zacks.
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| Composite 27 |
1M +15.1% |
3M +6.0% |
1Y +61.1% |
UP |
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has risen 11.2% since its last earnings report 30 days ago, with a 15.7% gain over the past month and 61.1% over the past year. The stock trades at $11, near the analyst target of $11, after losing $1.4 billion in 2025 on $18.6 billion in revenue. Risk lies in the stock's high valuation despite significant losses.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
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| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 27 |
RIKU
RIKU DINING GROUP Ltd
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— |
$34M |
| May 27 |
BWGC
BW Industrial Holdings Inc.
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— |
$21M |
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Congressional Trades |
1 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Tim Moore |
T |
Purchase |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
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Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
AKTX
+255.4%
$18.27
PCLA
+194.2%
$6.62
RYOJ
+148.8%
$5.00
QTEX
+140.0%
$0.73
BIYA
+110.5%
$1.30
Top Losers
GMM
-72.1%
$0.27
ADTX
-57.8%
$0.51
FUTG
-56.5%
$3.08
ODVWZ
-55.3%
$0.12
NGEN
-43.5%
$2.08
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MRVL
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
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$171B
· Earnings Mar 05
· Div 0.1%
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| $210C |
24 DTE |
+113.2% ann. |
+7.6% OTM |
Δ 0.09 |
POP 91% |
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| Stifel raised its price target on MRVL, expecting the company to deliver a "beat-and-raise" earnings report. |
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MRAM
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
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$776M
· Earnings Apr 29
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| $35C |
24 DTE |
+269.2% ann. |
+5.0% OTM |
Δ 0.19 |
POP 81% |
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| MRAM stock is surging, with one source indicating it has entered "Gamma Squeeze Territory," potentially causing the share price to double. |
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MU
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$841B
· Earnings Mar 18
· Div 0.1%
|
| $835C |
38 DTE |
+74.6% ann. |
+12.0% OTM |
Δ 0.05 |
POP 95% |
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| Micron's stock has risen over 133% from its lows, sparking debate about whether the stock remains undervalued amid the AI boom. |
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Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $746 · QQQ $718 · VIX 16.6 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 16.6 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$735P |
66d |
1 |
$14.40 |
$1,440 |
8.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$755P |
66d |
1 |
$22.22 |
$2,222 |
12.3% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$731P |
66d |
2 |
$13.25 |
$2,650 |
14.7% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $755P 66d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$708 |
110% |
$98,192 |
| Correction -10% |
$671 |
99% |
$97,670 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$634 |
95% |
$97,149 |
| Crash -20% |
$597 |
93% |
$96,627 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$710P |
66d |
1 |
$21.93 |
$2,193 |
12.1% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$730P |
66d |
1 |
$30.78 |
$3,078 |
17.0% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$703P |
66d |
2 |
$19.62 |
$3,924 |
21.7% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $730P 66d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$682 |
114% |
$97,506 |
| Correction -10% |
$646 |
99% |
$96,843 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$610 |
94% |
$96,181 |
| Crash -20% |
$574 |
92% |
$95,519 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:11 ET
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May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 25 (MTD) · Hit rate: 29/50 · Avg return: +3.6% · YTD: +26.4%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+69.6% |
Ann. |
88.5% |
Sharpe |
3.62 |
Max DD |
-5.5% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+68.6% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$169,589 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
9,766% |
Ann. |
25.9% |
Sharpe |
1.40 |
Max DD |
-43.6% |
| Win% |
66% |
Alpha |
+15.5% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$9,865,673 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
-1.7% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+9.4% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
+0.0% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
-0.7% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
-8.6% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
-0.2% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
-2.3% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+24.6% |
| OKLO |
4.0% |
-6.4% |
| WELL |
3.6% |
-0.3% |
| TRP |
3.3% |
+6.5% |
| PH |
2.9% |
-1.7% |
| WTS |
2.9% |
+3.0% |
| AMG |
2.9% |
+3.7% |
| BIIB |
2.9% |
+3.6% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-8.6% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+2.9% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+38.5% |
| CRDO |
2.0% |
+18.5% |
| L |
1.9% |
-2.5% |
| CASY |
1.8% |
-1.3% |
| GVA |
1.8% |
-6.8% |
| BE |
1.6% |
+4.1% |
| CTRE |
1.3% |
+5.0% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-0.7% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| ALAB |
1.2% |
+51.4% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+3.7% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-11.0% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-21.3% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+20.2% |
| VICR |
1.0% |
-0.1% |
| MIRM |
1.0% |
+2.2% |
| APGE |
1.0% |
+0.5% |
| ARGX |
1.0% |
+2.9% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+7.1% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-21.0% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
-1.1% |
| HLT |
0.8% |
+0.8% |
| RMBS |
0.5% |
+27.7% |
| AHR |
0.5% |
+0.1% |
| MO |
0.4% |
-0.9% |
| MDLZ |
0.4% |
+0.6% |
| GRMN |
0.2% |
-0.7% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+8.5% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+1.0% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+10.6% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+10.2% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+9.0% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+2.8% |
| META |
0.2% |
+0.2% |
|
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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