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Markets · Options · Signal
May 28, 2026 · All times ET
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Market Snapshot · 10:06 ET
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S&P 500
750.23
-0.03%
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Nasdaq
728.30
-0.16%
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Dow
504.91
-0.39%
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Russell 2k
288.06
-0.80%
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VIX
16.20
-0.55%
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20Y Bond
85.31
+0.01%
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Gold
406.36
-0.52%
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Silver
66.33
-1.73%
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Oil
133.51
+1.89%
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USD
27.79
+0.16%
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CNN Fear & Greed
60
Greed
wk +2 · mo -7
|
| Key Technical Levels |
| SPY |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 737.23 |
Res: 752.13 |
RSI: 71.1 |
| QQQ |
Trend: Bullish |
Sup: 705.17 |
Res: 733.32 |
RSI: 74.1 |
|
Econ Calendar |
8 high-impact · Thu May 28 – Fri May 29 · as of 10:06 ET |
| Thu May 28 |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr) — est. 0.3%, prev. 0.3% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr) — est. 3.3%, prev. 3.2% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) — est. 4.0%, prev. 1.3% |
| 08:30 |
US |
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — est. 2.0%, prev. 0.5% |
| 08:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims — est. 211K, prev. 210K |
| 10:00 |
US |
New Home Sales (Apr) — est. 661K, prev. 663K |
| 12:00 |
US |
Crude Oil Inventories — est. -3.800M, prev. -7.863M |
| Fri May 29 |
| 08:00 |
DE |
German CPI (MoM) (May) — est. 0.1%, prev. 0.6% |
|
| Indicator |
Value |
Change |
| 2Y Yield |
4.00% |
-1bps |
| 10Y Yield |
4.48% |
-2bps |
| Spread |
+48bps |
Flattening |
| DXY |
99.18 |
-0.03% |
| VIX/3M |
0.84 |
Contango |
| HY OAS |
6.88% |
-0.02% |
| BZ–WTI |
0.9877
$94.45 · $95.63
|
z -2.77 · Long spread · ρ 92%
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| GDXJ–GLD |
0.2717
$110.53 · $406.81
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z -1.21 · Watch · ρ 83%
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| BTC |
$72,884 |
-1.9% |
| ETH |
$1,979 |
-2.1% |
| ETH/BTC |
0.0271 |
|
Sector Rotation · Today |
10:10 ET |
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Health Care
+1.08%
XLV
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Energy
+0.74%
XLE
|
Technology
+0.28%
XLK
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Cons. Staples
+0.21%
XLP
|
Communication
+0.02%
XLC
|
Utilities
-0.11%
XLU
|
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Real Estate
-0.34%
XLRE
|
Financials
-0.46%
XLF
|
Cons. Discr.
-0.71%
XLY
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Materials
-0.87%
XLB
|
Industrials
-1.08%
XLI
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In today's Bull regime, defensive Health Care and cyclical Energy lead, while Industrials and Materials lag, suggesting a nuanced rotation into relative strength.
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Regime Timeline
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From the Desk · BULL Day 6 (prev. close)
“The market remains in a BULL regime for 6 days, with the S&P 500 essentially flat at -0.03% from the previous close, while oil-related tensions escalated with drone attacks off Turkey's Black Sea coast. Worth watching is the divergence between the Fed's Williams suggesting the inflation hit will peak in the next few months and the overnight selloff in Treasuries on oil-driven concerns, with the 10-year yield not explicitly reported but implied to be under scrutiny.”
— The MOS Quantitative Desk
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|
Policy Risk Monitor — White House
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Crowd Signal |
250 posts · 5 subs · 10:09 ET |
Trending tickers across Reddit · r/wallstreetbets · r/stocks · r/options · r/thetagang · r/StockMarket
Scoring: mention count × cross-sub breadth · pts = upvotes · N/M subs = appeared in N of M subreddits scanned
|
MU
mixed
59
“Yes, I held my $MU $160k yolo back at $110/share (for most of the run) 1,058% 1y…”
WSB 2302 pts · 5/5 subs
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META
mixed
22
“Meta shares jump after company announces premium subscriptions for Facebook and …”
WSB 3467 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
MSFT
mixed
19
“$DELL wins 9.7B government contract”
WSB 733 pts · 5/5 subs
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SNDK
mixed
18
“Yes, I held my $MU $160k yolo back at $110/share (for most of the run) 1,058% 1y…”
WSB 2302 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
RKLB
mixed
16
“Realized my first gain”
WSB 2003 pts · 3/5 subs
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MRVL
bullish
15
“Yes, I held my $MU $160k yolo back at $110/share (for most of the run) 1,058% 1y…”
WSB 2302 pts · 3/5 subs
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ALAB
mixed
15
“Yes, I held my $MU $160k yolo back at $110/share (for most of the run) 1,058% 1y…”
WSB 2302 pts · 3/5 subs
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NVDA
mixed
13
“Yes, I held my $MU $160k yolo back at $110/share (for most of the run) 1,058% 1y…”
WSB 2302 pts · 5/5 subs
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|
Insider Wire |
2386 Form 4s filed · 10:06 ET |
Notable open-market transactions · SEC EDGAR · 2026-05-23 to 2026-05-28
Tech executives are dumping shares ahead of earnings, with notable sales by APP's CTO, NET's President, and PANW's EVP, fueling bearish bets in the software sector.
|
Ticker |
Insider |
Value |
| SELL |
APP |
Shikin Vasily Chief Technology Officer |
$34.3M |
| SELL |
NET |
Zatlyn Michelle President and Board Co-Chair |
$18.3M |
| SELL |
PANW |
Klarich Lee EVP Chief Product & Tech Ofcr |
$16.3M |
| SELL |
APP |
Shikin Vasily Chief Technology Officer |
$7.7M |
| SELL |
UTHR |
EDGEMOND JAMES CFO AND TREASURER |
$5.7M |
| SELL |
HSY |
HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE … Insider |
$3.9M |
|
Short Interest Monitor |
25 scanned · 10:14 ET |
FINRA short interest via Yahoo · ~10 days (FINRA via Yahoo) · squeeze risk = SI% × days-to-cover
| Ticker |
SI % |
DTC |
MoM |
Squeeze |
| UPST |
32.0% |
5.3d |
-4.3% |
HIGH
|
| BYND |
27.0% |
1.4d |
-3.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| OKLO |
23.1% |
2.1d |
+22.6% |
ELEVATED
|
| SMCI |
18.0% |
2.2d |
-6.4% |
ELEVATED
|
| GME |
14.1% |
5.5d |
-6.4% |
MODERATE
|
| RIVN |
14.1% |
5.2d |
+1.3% |
MODERATE
|
| CVNA |
13.7% |
5.8d |
+2.0% |
MODERATE
|
| SOFI |
13.7% |
2.5d |
+9.3% |
LOW
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Phantom Float · Squeeze Action Monitor |
8113 scanned · 80 SEC-confirmed· 5 red · 54 yellow |
| Ticker |
Struct |
Ignit |
Final |
Hldrs |
Flags |
Bucket |
| SONO |
0.46 |
0.85 |
0.49 |
42% |
GRINDCOVERELEVLADDERATM* |
RED
|
| RES |
0.38 |
0.85 |
0.46 |
56% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| AMCX |
0.32 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
47% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| BIIB |
0.31 |
0.85 |
0.44 |
75% |
GRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| FBYD |
0.33 |
0.85 |
0.32 |
88% |
COOLGRINDCOVERELEV |
RED
|
| LCID |
0.55 |
0.10 |
0.55 |
76% |
PREELEVATM* |
YELLOW
|
| SWKS |
0.26 |
0.85 |
0.49 |
52% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| CBRL |
0.30 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
36% |
GRINDCOVERELEVEarnings |
YELLOW
|
| NTAP |
0.12 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
37% |
IGNGRINDCOVERELEV |
YELLOW
|
| EVEX |
0.27 |
0.85 |
0.42 |
88% |
GRINDCOVERELEVATM |
YELLOW
|
+ 49 more yellow names not shown
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Market Headlines |
8 sources · 10:06 ET |
Stock Rally Stalls as Oil Rises on US-Iran Clashes: Markets Wrap
BBG 15h ago
The recent US-Iran clashes have introduced uncertainty into the stock market rally, as rising oil prices may dampen economic growth. If the conflict escalates, we could see a risk-off reaction, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. However, a swift resolution to the conflict could lead to a relief rally in equities.
| BBG |
Treasuries’ Oil-Driven Selloff Stalls as Inflation Gauge Slows
The slowdown in the inflation gauge has provided some support to the stock market, as lower inflation expectations can reduce pressure on the Fed to raise rates. However, if oil prices surge, inflation fears could reignite, leading to a bond yield increase and potential stock market decline. Keep an eye on upcoming inflation reports and crude price action.
|
6m ago |
| BBG |
Oil Tankers Suffer Drone Attacks Off Turkey’s Black Sea Coast
The oil tanker attacks off Turkey's Black Sea coast have raised concerns about crude supply risks, which could lead to higher oil prices and increased volatility in refining and logistics stocks. If the attacks cease or security measures prove effective, crude supply risks may decrease, alleviating some pressure. Monitor tanker rates and product crack spreads for further indications.
|
6m ago |
| FJ |
Fed's Williams: The hit to inflation is likely to peak in the next few months. Tariff impacts should peak in the next few months.
The Fed's Williams statement suggests that inflation and tariff impacts may peak in the next few months, which could stabilize economic conditions. However, without further context, it's challenging to determine a clear market direction. Investors may seek more information on inflation trends and economic indicators to make informed decisions.
|
44m ago |
| FJ |
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We're going to shut down Iran's airline access to landing spots and fuel - Post on X.
The US restrictions on Iran's airline access have escalated tensions between the two countries, which could lead to higher oil prices and increased geopolitical risk premiums. A de-escalation of tensions could result in lower crude prices and a recovery in risk assets. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and crude price action.
|
1h ago |
| BBG |
Fed’s Williams Says Rates Impact of Productivity Boom Is Unclear
The Fed's Williams statement on the unclear impact of a productivity boom on interest rates has introduced uncertainty into the market. A productivity boom could support economic growth and potentially lead to higher stock prices, but the Fed's next move regarding interest rates is uncertain. Investors may seek more data on productivity and economic growth to make informed decisions.
|
7m ago |
| BBG |
US Consumer Spending Increases as Inflation Accelerates
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48m ago |
| FJ |
MOO Imbalance
|
35m ago |
|
Financial Wire |
Top 5 · AI digest · 10:06 ET |
| FJ |
Fed's Williams: Rates to stay restrictive
Systematic traders watch for rate guidance
|
36m ago |
| FJ |
US PCE Inflation Hits 4.4%
Inflation data informs rate expectations
|
1h ago |
| FJ |
BoC Sees Financial Stability Risks
Canadian financial system under scrutiny
|
4m ago |
| FJ |
Crude Oil Exports to Get Boost
Kazakhstan oil exports may hit 3 mln tons
|
5m ago |
| FJ |
US GDP Growth Revised Down
Economic growth concerns resurface
|
1h ago |
Source: FinancialJuice · 40 flashes scanned
|
|
BSAC
$31.59
-1.7%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 15 |
1M -2.9% |
3M -8.4% |
1Y +29.9% |
DOWN |
Banco Santander-Chile (BSAC) reported strong Q1 profitability despite a uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, with management citing higher inflation as a near-term support for margins. The stock has become technically oversold, with a 1M return of -2.9% and 3M return of -8.4%, but has a 1Y return of +29.9%. The market may be mispricing the risk of weaker growth and household pressures later in the year.
|
|
DFIS
$36.47
-0.6%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 50 |
1M +4.1% |
3M -0.8% |
1Y +26.9% |
UP |
DFIS, a Dimensional International Small Cap ETF, has seen increased attention due to its potential in emerging market development finance, providing diversification and stability to private credit amid current volatility. The ETF has a 1-year return of +26.9% and a current trend score of 50/100, with a bullish HMM regime. However, insider activity spiked 46.9x with an insider score of 81, which could be mispriced if investors overreact to short-term performance.
|
|
CECO
$79.40
-8.7%
|
Bullish
|
| Composite 68 |
1M +17.0% |
3M +37.3% |
1Y +205.3% |
FLAT |
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) has a strong buy rating from analysts, with a median price target of $86, and has seen significant insider activity with a 41.2x minute spike and an insider score of 80. The stock has delivered impressive returns, with 1M +17.0%, 3M +37.3%, and 1Y +205.3%. However, with a composite score of 68/100 and a flat trend, the market may be overpricing CECO's growth prospects.
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Options · Portfolio · Actionable Picks
|
|
| Ticker |
Rating |
Buy / Hold / Sell |
Period |
| AVGO |
Buy |
53 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| NVDA |
Buy |
66 / 4 / 1
|
2026-05-01 |
| WMT |
Buy |
44 / 4 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AMZN |
Buy |
72 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| MSFT |
Buy |
60 / 6 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| GOOGL |
Buy |
62 / 8 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| META |
Buy |
64 / 9 / 0
|
2026-05-01 |
| AAPL |
Buy |
39 / 13 / 2
|
2026-05-01 |
|
| Date |
Company |
Range |
Size |
| May 29 |
FISN
DEEP FISSION, INC.
|
— |
$179M |
| Jun 03 |
AADX
Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.
|
— |
$785M |
| Jun 04 |
INIO
INNIO Holding GmbH
|
— |
$2.3B |
| Jun 04 |
SSMR
Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co
|
— |
$380M |
| Jun 04 |
QNT
Quantinuum Inc.
|
— |
$1.2B |
| Jun 04 |
SFPT
Safepoint Holdings, Inc.
|
— |
$326M |
| Jun 05 |
WHK
WhiteHawk Income Corp
|
— |
$215M |
|
Congressional Trades |
3 disclosures · 14d |
US Senate & House financial disclosures · STOCK Act · FMP
| Member |
Ticker |
Type |
Amount |
| Jake Auchincloss |
STT |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Jake Auchincloss |
STT |
Sale |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
| Tim Moore |
T |
Purchase |
$15,001 - $50,000 |
|
Market Movers |
FMP real-time |
Top Gainers
ATPC
+105.3%
$5.85
MASK
+69.6%
$2.34
ASTC
+57.9%
$21.81
CODX
+56.3%
$11.41
UMAC
+52.4%
$28.69
Top Losers
SUGP
-41.4%
$1.56
ZCMD
-36.8%
$0.98
PLAB
-32.9%
$35.90
RAY
-25.6%
$2.62
GMM
-25.2%
$0.14
|
Unusual Options Volume |
15 scanned · 10:14 ET |
| Ticker |
Total Vol |
Calls |
Puts |
P/C |
Hottest Strike |
| SPY |
373,651 |
150,385 |
223,266 |
1.48
|
$750C 32,923 vol |
| SPY: Elevated put buying, P/C=1.48, suggests protective hedge or bearish bet. |
| QQQ |
302,847 |
136,365 |
166,482 |
1.22
|
$731C 20,415 vol |
| QQQ: Moderate put bias, P/C=1.22, mixed flow, no clear directional signal. |
| NVDA |
243,806 |
179,396 |
64,410 |
0.36
|
$215C 45,567 vol |
| NVDA: Aggressive call buying, P/C=0.36, hottest $215C, bullish bet or gamma squeeze setup. |
| TSLA |
172,917 |
118,441 |
54,476 |
0.46
|
$890C 38,533 vol |
| TSLA: Call-heavy flow, P/C=0.46, $890C leads, bullish positioning or speculative bet. |
| AMD |
36,094 |
19,180 |
16,914 |
0.88
|
$535C 1,696 vol |
| AMD: Near-neutral P/C=0.88, low vol, no clear directional signal. |
|
|
AMD
CC
Best Quality
Very High · max 3%
|
$816B
· Earnings Aug 04
|
| $530C |
23 DTE |
+69.9% ann. |
+8.0% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
|
| Cathie Wood sold $16M of AMD stock, which is surging, according to a report on thestreet.com. |
|
MXL
CC
Craziest Return
Moderate · max 1.5%
|
$9B
· Earnings Jul 22
|
| $100C |
23 DTE |
+228.9% ann. |
+7.3% OTM |
Δ 0.09 |
POP 91% |
|
| MaxLinear Inc (MXL) stock is down 3.1% amid a new deal with GCT aimed at accelerating 5G home and office internet. |
|
ARM
CC
Safest
High · max 2%
|
$344B
· Earnings Jul 29
|
| $345C |
31 DTE |
+67.2% ann. |
+13.9% OTM |
Δ 0.07 |
POP 93% |
|
| ARM is surging due to increased CPU demand driven by Nvidia's Vera, while also facing a potential US antitrust probe over chip technology. |
|
Portfolio Hedge |
SPY $751 · QQQ $729 · VIX 16.1 |
Optimal single-put hedge for a $100K portfolio · β-matched sizing for uniform protection across -5% to -20% · roll every 60 days
✓ VIX 16.1 — Below 22.0 threshold. Puts are cheap — good time to hedge.
SPY Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$740P |
63d |
1 |
$13.82 |
$1,382 |
8.0% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$760P |
63d |
1 |
$21.98 |
$2,198 |
12.7% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$730P |
63d |
2 |
$11.05 |
$2,210 |
12.8% |
Scenario: 1× SPY $760P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
SPY |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$713 |
110% |
$98,243 |
| Correction -10% |
$676 |
99% |
$97,746 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$638 |
96% |
$97,249 |
| Crash -20% |
$600 |
94% |
$96,752 |
QQQ Puts
| Profile |
Strike |
Exp |
Qty |
Prem |
Cost |
Ann % |
| Defensive β=0.65 |
$720P |
63d |
1 |
$21.51 |
$2,151 |
12.5% |
| Balanced ● β=0.85 |
$745P |
63d |
1 |
$32.98 |
$3,298 |
19.1% |
| Aggressive β=1.10 |
$710P |
63d |
2 |
$17.95 |
$3,590 |
20.8% |
Scenario: 1× QQQ $745P 63d (β=0.85 portfolio)
| Scenario |
QQQ |
Coverage |
NLV |
| Pullback -5% |
$693 |
122% |
$97,658 |
| Correction -10% |
$656 |
104% |
$97,055 |
| Bear leg -15% |
$620 |
98% |
$96,452 |
| Crash -20% |
$584 |
95% |
$95,849 |
One near-ATM put per 100 shares of β-adjusted exposure · roll at 30d remaining · near-ATM strikes provide uniform -5% to -20% coverage unlike OTM ladders · 10:09 ET
|
|
May 2026 Picks — SD50 Portfolio (MTD)
May 01 – May 28 (MTD) · Hit rate: 28/50 · Avg return: +5.3% · YTD: +27.7%
Systematic monthly portfolio · 5 low-correlation signal streams spanning large-cap quality, broad-universe value, thematic momentum, high-volatility mean-reversion, and static hedges · multi-timeframe scoring across 7,000+ symbols · no discretionary overrides
| Live Track Record · since 2025-07 · 10 months |
| Return |
+69.6% |
Ann. |
88.5% |
Sharpe |
3.62 |
Max DD |
-5.5% |
| Win% |
90% |
Alpha |
+68.6% |
SPY |
+16.3% |
$100K → |
$169,589 |
| Full backtest · 2006-03–2026-04 · 239 months |
| Total |
9,766% |
Ann. |
25.9% |
Sharpe |
1.40 |
Max DD |
-43.6% |
| Win% |
66% |
Alpha |
+15.5% |
SPY |
616% |
$100K → |
$9,865,673 |
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| AVGO |
6.4% |
-0.6% |
| KLAC |
6.1% |
+9.8% |
| FBLA |
5.6% |
+0.9% |
| GOOGL |
5.4% |
+0.6% |
| WMT |
5.4% |
-9.7% |
| BWET |
4.5% |
-7.1% |
| GEV |
4.5% |
-6.1% |
| SNDK |
4.1% |
+34.3% |
| OKLO |
4.0% |
-4.6% |
| WELL |
3.6% |
-1.5% |
| TRP |
3.3% |
+2.0% |
| PH |
2.9% |
-4.7% |
| WTS |
2.9% |
+4.3% |
| AMG |
2.9% |
+3.8% |
| BIIB |
2.9% |
+4.4% |
| HWKN |
2.6% |
-4.8% |
| QLTY |
2.2% |
+3.5% |
| MU |
2.1% |
+67.8% |
| CRDO |
2.0% |
+16.4% |
| L |
1.9% |
-5.1% |
| CASY |
1.8% |
-5.0% |
| GVA |
1.8% |
-2.4% |
| BE |
1.6% |
-1.0% |
| CTRE |
1.3% |
+5.5% |
| AMZN |
1.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
| Ticker |
Wt% |
Return |
| ALAB |
1.2% |
+65.2% |
| VFLO |
1.1% |
+4.8% |
| LAR |
1.1% |
-0.8% |
| INBX |
1.1% |
-21.2% |
| PL |
1.1% |
+30.1% |
| VICR |
1.0% |
+24.3% |
| MIRM |
1.0% |
+0.0% |
| APGE |
1.0% |
-3.7% |
| ARGX |
1.0% |
+5.6% |
| HWM |
1.0% |
+6.7% |
| LWLG |
0.9% |
-28.4% |
| AAOI |
0.9% |
-6.5% |
| HLT |
0.8% |
+4.8% |
| RMBS |
0.5% |
+31.0% |
| AHR |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
| MO |
0.4% |
-2.8% |
| MDLZ |
0.4% |
+1.5% |
| GRMN |
0.2% |
-4.1% |
| NVDA |
0.2% |
+7.4% |
| MSFT |
0.2% |
+3.0% |
| LLY |
0.2% |
+16.7% |
| AAPL |
0.2% |
+11.0% |
| TSLA |
0.2% |
+12.1% |
| BRK.B |
0.2% |
+1.5% |
| META |
0.2% |
+5.3% |
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Important Disclosures
The MOS Regime Inference is powered by a proprietary quantitative engine utilizing a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Hidden Markov Model ensemble. It combines Bayesian probabilistic state detection with deep learning sequence models across dozens of cross-asset features to identify structural market shifts and early-warning crisis indicators. This model is experimental and subject to inherent statistical uncertainties.
Timing. The issue date above is the publication (send) date. The regime badge, regime_latest.json snapshot, and embedded regime timeline chart are produced when this issue is built: we run hmm_validation_suite.py --inference at the start of that pipeline using the latest trading rows then available in the price cache (often through the prior U.S. session close when today’s full session bar is not yet in the panel). Running inference again later the same day can change SPY, VIX, PBT, and leverage readouts. The timeline chart is a rolling ~90-day view frozen at send time; back-to-back archived issues can look very similar when history overlaps.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future returns. Backtested performance has inherent limitations: it is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, does not reflect actual trading, and may not account for all market conditions, transaction costs, or liquidity constraints. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned. All data is believed reliable but accuracy is not guaranteed. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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